At this point, you will have read numerous takes, predictions and analyses of what four more years of Mr. Trump in the White House means. I promise that I will make this short. I think Sam Harris’ “The Reckoning” offers a good explanation of what went wrong for the Democrats and the liberals. I also enjoyed the discussion between Glenn Loury and Daniel Bessner, even if I strongly disagree with Mr. Bessner on a number of key areas. If you want a longer explanation of the ills that have befallen US Democrats, unrelated to the diagnosis of excessive wokeness and identity politics, you should read Thomas Franks’ “Listen, Liberal”, published on the eve of the Democrat’s first loss to Mr. Trump in 2016. It’s all there, with a straight line back to Frank’s earlier identification of the problem when he asked “What’s the Matter with Kansas?” Apart from that, we should also add that Mr. Trump simply ran a superior campaign to Kamala Harris. After all, you don’t win all the swing states through luck or due to bad opposition alone.
Read MoreI detect a lot of worry about the global economic outlook. This is understandable. Equities are close to, or at, record highs with extended valuations. Growth fears have crept higher on investors’ list of concerns, most notably with signs of softness in the US labour market as well as persistently weak domestic demand in Europe. Add a still-fragile Chinese economy to the mix, despite hopes of stimulus, and the prospect of a leap in economic uncertainty after next month’s US presidential elections, it is no wonder investors are on edge. But what if I told you that global leading indicators are strong and healthy and that combined with falling inflation and falling interest rates, this is one of the best macro-setups for risk assets. I suspect many would reply that such tailwinds already are comfortably priced-in to equity and credit markets. I am sympathetic to that point, but hear me out.
Read MoreMy second audio essay is now up. You can listen and download the file directly here, or alternatively subscribe to ‘Alpha Source Audio Essay’ Apple Podcast channel where my future audio essays will also be published. The link to the episode on Apple podcasts is here.
You can find and download all my economics and demographics essays in written form here , as PDFs. You can find links to all references on the landing page for my demographics work here. I plan on doing once a month of these audio essays, time permitting, on demographics, economics, finance and everything in between.
Read MoreI am a big fan of US economist and academic Glenn Loury. He is smart, honest and well-articulated. He is also not afraid of an intellectual scrap if he stumbles upon one. He is an indispensable public commentator and intellectual whose ideas and influence go far beyond the confines of race, and associated social issues, in the US where he has staked his claim to fame and authority most comprehensively. Glenn has an impressive back-catalogue of writing and citations, but the best way to get a sense of him is by listening to his podcast the Glenn Show, which can be found on all the usual platforms. I am also a big fan of his co-conspirator, John McWorter, a US linguist and public intellectual, with whom Glenn runs a bi-weekly conversation on his podcast, and Q&A for paying subscribers. It is a must-listen. On this occasion, however, I want to recommend Glenn’s recent discussion with Larry Kotlikoff, a US academic economist, in which they discuss the economic policy ideas of the two candidates in the upcoming US presidential election ideas, and the US economy more generally. As the title of the podcast goes; if only we had an economist in the White House!
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