The economics of currency crises has evolved through successive “generations” of models, each reflecting the historical experience and intellectual climate of its time. From the fixed exchange rate collapses of the 1970s to the financial crises of the 1990s and beyond, economists have sought to explain why speculative attacks occur, how they unfold, and what policy choices can prevent or exacerbate them. The three generations of models—spanning from mechanical balance-of-payments inconsistencies to self-fulfilling expectations and financial fragility—together trace a trajectory from deterministic to strategic and behavioural understandings of crises. Yet, in a modern world of complex capital markets and hybrid monetary regimes, each generation’s insights also reveals its limitations.
Read MoreThe economics of business cycle theory revolves around understanding the recurrent fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—expansions and contractions—that characterize market economies. These cycles, while irregular in timing and amplitude, display certain regularities in employment, production, investment, and prices. Over the past century, economists have developed two main traditions in explaining them: one empirical and inductive, epitomised by the work of Geoffrey H. Moore and Victor Zarnowitz; the other theoretical and deductive, culminating in Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory. The contrast between these approaches highlights a broader tension in macroeconomics between data-driven description and model-based explanation.
Read MoreDiscrimination has long been a central topic in the study of labour markets and economic behaviour, with economists attempting to understand not only its moral and social implications but also its economic causes and consequences. At its core, the economics of discrimination explores how differences in treatment based on race, gender, ethnicity, or other characteristics affect employment, wages, and productivity, and how market forces interact with these behaviours. The field was first formalised in Gary Becker’s The Economics of Discrimination (1957), which applied the tools of microeconomics to the question of why discrimination persists and under what conditions it might diminish. Later contributions, including those of Thomas Sowell, further investigated the incentives shaping discriminatory practices and the economic outcomes across different groups.
Read MoreBayesian statistics has become an increasingly influential framework in economics, offering an alternative to the frequentist methods that dominated much of the twentieth century. At its core, the Bayesian approach is built around the idea of probability as a degree of belief rather than as a long-run frequency. Rooted in the eighteenth-century work of Thomas Bayes and formalised by Pierre-Simon Laplace, the Bayesian method uses Bayes’ theorem to update prior beliefs in light of new evidence. This simple but powerful principle—posterior belief equals prior belief updated by data—has profound implications for how economists model uncertainty, interpret evidence, and make decisions.
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