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US Equity Sector Rotation Chartbook, May 2026 - The Unholy Alliance

The May 2026 edition of the US equity sector chartbook can be found here, with accompanying portfolio statistics here

I have made quite a few changes to the chartbook since the last time I ran it. I have changed my data provider from Investing.com to SheetsFinance, which makes it much easier to update the spreadsheets feeding the Python scripts that generate this, and any other market-data chartbooks, that I am using. The data now reflect one-year trailing total returns with daily observations—approximately 250 trading days per year. I have also added a cross-correlation rotation matrix, which tracks shifts in sector correlations with IVV, along with chart plots of rolling correlation Z-scores.

Things to think about #17 - The Land Trap, The Dragonlance Chronicles, Revelation Space, and Canadian Short Fiction

It’s been a while since I did one of these, which leaves with plenty of material for your enjoyment. The Land Trap, by Mike Bird, a journalist working for the Economist, is my most recent non-fiction reads—or listen via Audible—and I enjoyed it. Mike’s book puts pen to paper on an idea that has rattled around in my head for a while. If we were to reinvent capitalism today—with our knowledge about the past few hundred years—we would likely treat land and real estate very differently from a financial and economic perspective. More specifically, we wouldn’t allow the speculation, securitisation and ultimately ownership concentration of land and housing that is a core feature of capitalist societies today.

Global Leading Indicators, March 2026 - A Chink in the Armour

The March update of the global LEI chartbook confirms that a broad-based upturn in global cyclical activity has been underway since the end of the third quarter of last year. However, the data show hints of weakness at the end of Q1, with the number of positive LEIs sitting at 14 out of 20—unchanged from a downwardly revised level in February and below the average of 16 recorded between September and January. This deterioration comes before leading indicators have had to contend with the chaos wrought by the war in Iran and disruptions to energy and commodity flows through the Strait of Hormuz and, more broadly, across the Middle East.

Global Leading Indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed; will it slip in rising oil prices?

The February update of the global LEI chartbook confirms that a broad-based upturn in global cyclical activity has been underway since the end of the third quarter last year. Granted, the number of LEIs currently in expansion—16—is slightly lower than at previous cyclical peaks. However, the February update and revisions point to a stabilising expansion at this rate, which remains robust overall.

The big question now is whether the upturn will falter in the face of the energy price shock ignited by the war in Iran.

Time will tell.

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