Equities have wobbled a bit recently, without any obvious catalyst, aside from the most apparent one: they’re expensive by nearly all historical valuation measures. Many investors now appear concerned that the end of the U.S. government shutdown will trigger a deluge of data, potentially revealing that the economy is weaker than expected. That fear, however, doesn’t quite align with the sell-off in the December 2025 SOFR contract, which is casting doubt on what had once seemed a near-certain Fed rate cut in December.
Read MoreEquity investors are currently in the enviable position of having their cake and eating it too. What if I told you that you could outperform the S&P 500 by investing in market-leading U.S. technology firms—and enhance that outperformance further by adding non-U.S. equities? Sounds too good to be true? Well, yes and no.
Read MoreThe high point of Daniel Craig’s portrait of James Bond over five movies is undoubtedly the moment in Skyfall where Bond runs through London to rescue M, portrayed by Judi Dench, as she finishes her testimony in front of a select committee—assembled to put her and her agency out to pasture—with the closing passage of Tennyson’s Ulysses. The duality of meaning embedded in this sequence is profound. In the movie itself, the depiction of the ageing and wounded, but still capable, hero encapsulates the narrative arc of James Bond, who in Skyfall has almost literally come back from the dead to save his country. In a wider context, Tennyson’s closing lines can be seen as the saplings of a post-empire English identity, in which erstwhile grandeur and power have been replaced with grit, determination, and pride—and more distantly, with common sense, decency, and respect.
Read MoreThe September 2025 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.
One point on the methodology that I may not have made entirely clear: the aggregate LEI diffusion referred to below—and shown in the first charts of the chartbook—is not the same as a standard diffusion index. It is calculated as the sum of two figures: the number of LEIs that are high and rising minus those that are high and falling, and the number of LEIs that are low and rising minus those that are low and falling. This approach is designed to provide a more accurate turning point signal than a simple diffusion index. For the September 2025 edition specifically, the value for the G20 LEI, shown on page three of the chartbook, has been extrapolated to reflect a small rise. This mirrors the increase in the G7 indicator, as the G20 value had not yet been updated when the data was pulled from the OECD.
I seem to have a knack for releasing these chartbooks just as markets are hit with a curveball. The August edition came out in the wake of the soft August payrolls report, which opened the door to a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve and rattled investor sentiment with renewed concerns about a potential slowdown—or even a recession—in the U.S. economy.
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