Millennials, according to the internet, are people born between 1981 and 1996. That's a bit of a gap, so it will be useful to narrow down the definition of our protagonist somewhat. This is a story about a relatively old Millennial, born in 1984. It is not at all inconceivable that this person will have a different perspective from a namesake born in the middle of the 1990s. This is a bias that we must accept such as it is. Even more specifically, this is a story about European millennial, born in Denmark, who has ended up in the United Kingdom. He is married to a Canadian woman of Guyanese, and ultimately Indian, descent, who is now a naturalised English citizen. The melting pot is real, and millennials are sizzling in its cauldron.
Read MoreI hope you’re enjoying the 2023 Chat-GPT advent calendar even if it is quite a deviation from the content normally posted here. Fret not, I will pepper the flow of advent stories with some economics, and a lookahead to markets next year.
I really enjoyed @EconTalker's conversation with @tylercowen, the founder of the most widely read economics blog out there, reminding us that there is still value in reading the grand old masters of economics. I enjoyed re-reading most of Keynes’ the General Theory for my essay on fiscal policy, and it was also fun to remind myself about Milton Friedman’s permanent-income-hypothesis for the essay on the life cycle hypothesis. But in reality, I fall foul of Tyler’s accusation of an economist who is probably not as well acquainted with the classics as I should be. I have read very little of Smith for example, I find Hayek very difficult to read, and as an economist interested in demographics, I also regret to say that I have only read few parts of Malthus in the primary versions. Fortunately for me and others, Tyler has made his new his new book—"GOAT" of economics—freely available, and I am looking forward to dig in over Christmas.
Read MoreIn my day-job I am forced to write my economic outlook for the new year in December, alongside most other economists. This is part of a long-standing sell-side tradition, and at Christmas time, you don’t change traditions. The real way to do it, however, is to way a few weeks into January to see where the dust settles and how investors vote with their money in the early sessions of the year. I thus present the Alpha Sources version; five key questions for 2023, and as many answers. I’ll start with the war in Russia, asking what in fact Russia will achieve, if anything. I then ask whether 60/40 portfolio will rebound in 2023, and whether the leadership in global equities is changing. I then qualify my answer with a question on geopolitics and the free flow of goods and capital between China and the US, before asking whether Covid is over.
Read MoreWhat’s happening in Ukraine is important. The fog of war remains thick, but the incoming news is increasingly clear. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is progressing more quickly than even the most optimistic experts had predicted. The latest reports suggest that Ukraine is on the brink on retaking Donetsk, and its airport, which would be extraordinary. There are now signs that Ukraine’s success on the battlefield is being admitted on Russian state TV. Assuming this news out of Ukraine is even partly true, we are now, in my view, in a very dangerous phase of the conflict. I am saying this precisely because Ukraine’s offensive itself is morally and politically unchallengeable. Ukraine has a right to defend itself, and to exploit its military initiative. Considerations about Russia’s potential response to what can only be described as a humiliation are absent, in both Kyiv and Western capitals. Such considerations might arise soon enough, but for now the sentiment is clear. Russia is getting a good beating and it had it coming. I wholeheartedly agree.
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