I have a few speaking engagements coming up, prompting me to update my view on the world beyond the borders of the Eurozone, which makes up the day job. One trend that I am looking forward to present to, and discuss with, investors and capital allocators is the tension between signs that the inflation and interest rate shocks are now fading, in a cyclical sense, and the risk that inflation will stabilise above 2%, posing a challenge for monetary policymakers. Will they channel their inner Volcker or fudge the 2% inflation target?
Read MoreSomeone has to say it, and it might as well be me. Markets have a distinct goldilocks feel about them at the moment, or in the words of the FT’s editors; markets are beginning to eye the “immaculate disinflation”, which is a prerequisite for a soft landing. This is a story about two trends; easing inflation and economies which are, well… neither too hot nor too cold. Soft US and UK inflation reports for the month of June have been key catalysts for the change in mood. Headline CPI inflation in the US fell to a two-year low of 3.0%, with core inflation dropping by 0.5pp, to 4.8%, a 20-month low. In the UK, meanwhile, headline inflation slipped to 7.9%, from 8.7% in May, while core inflation dipped by 0.2pp, to 6.9%. These numbers don’t exactly scream goldilocks, but markets trade at the margin of the economic data; it is the direction of travel that matters.
Read MoreThe prevailing mood in global macro discussions seems to be as follows; inflation is past its peak, but it is set to remain a lot higher for a lot longer than initially anticipated, forcing central banks to continue hiking, keep rates higher for longer, or a combination of the two. The interest rate shock in the UK, as markets have adjusted their expectations for the BOE bank rate higher, and hawkish comments from the ECB are the two most obvious cases in point in developed markets. But a surprise hike by the Bank of Canada, and a larger-than-expected hike in Norway have added to the sentiment. We only really need the Fed to be forced into a hawkish turn to complete the narrative. This shift is important for investors. We are not just trying to calibrate when central banks will pause their hiking cycles—probably soon—but we’re also increasingly discussing, and pricing, how long rates will stay elevated, and whether central banks will have to resume hiking before they cut. Higher-for-longer, or #H4L, is already a trending hashtag on FinTwitter.
Read MoreCentral bank hiking cycles in the developed world are slowly but surely coming to an end, raising the question of whether they have pulled off a soft landing, defined as a fall in inflation back towards target of around 2% without a meaningful decline in output and rising unemployment. On the face of it, the answer to this question is a resounding no. Interest rates in Europe, the UK and the US are up anywhere from 300 to 450bp in less than a year, driving up bond yields , and pushing yield curve inversions to near record levels. Anyone using these data points to predict what comes next, using historical relationships, will conclude that the wheels are about to come off in developed economies and their financials markets alike. The difficulties in the US regional banking sector is, in this case, simply a canary in the coal mine, warning of bigger shocks to come. The investment implications of such a view are simple; short equities and long short-term government bonds.
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