Another week, another hand grenade thrown in U.S. politics and international affairs. President Trump and his advisors believe they have the wind in their sails, and they're determined to make as much headway as possible. We all have our opinions on this, but as investors we need to keep our eyes on the ball. And the situation is getting interesting. Spoos are up 23% since the lows of the Q1 panic in 2016, and it has soared 10% alone since Mr. Trump snatched the elections.
Read MoreIt is a public holiday in Germany on Monday and that is probably a good thing. But that won't prevent the hot takes on Deutsche Bank from piling up faster than Donald Trump's tax liabilities. I have a lot of friends on the buy side as well as strategists at major sell side shops, and the debate between us has been lively in recent days. But we are no closer to a solution and neither, it appears, is the market given the ridiculous price action on Friday. The grapevine has it that the DOJ will lowball the fine, which should allow DB to stagger along in accordance with its original 2020 plan. But the results on October 27th will be a key event in either case. A bad downside surprise could bring coupon payments on the COCOs in danger, at least as far as I understand. I concede, though, that I have no strong take on whether this is indeed likely to happen.
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