We have barely recovered from the hangover acquired on New Year's Eve, and I am already tired of the memes and narratives being used to label 2017. I like to believe that I have a decent bullshit-filter, but I have realised that it needs a serious upgrade in the wake of recent geopolitical festivities. Call it the January blues, but the idea of re-engaging with the Trump/Brexit crap-shooters doesn’t exactly fill me with joy. The upshot, I suppose, is that it forces me to keep the eye on the ball. In that vein, the tradition of financial market analysis at the dawn of a new year suggests that I present a list of list of 2017 (non)predictions and themes. But I won’t. This already has been done ad nauseum by other prominent members of the peanut gallery. Instead, I want to pick up where I left before I dialled down for the Christmas break.
Read MoreOne the more enjoyable things about reading Macro Man in recently is that the author's mood, as well as the spirit of the more battle hardened of his commenters, have been lifted significantly. This is not because they necessarily wanted Mr. Trump to move into the White House, but rather because the political shock in the U.S. appears to have brought back good old fashioned, active, macro trading.
I am not sure it ever left, but I sympathise with the idea that the change in political winds in the U.S., and Europe, will unlock hitherto barren markets for swashbuckling macro investors. The added joy of such a story would be that the index huggers and risk-parity brigade would see their clout diminished somewhat. After all, bond yields are now rising again, and next year's political constellation in Europe could well create a number of new currencies to dabble in. I doubt Macro Man will be that lucky, though, but one can always dream I suppose
Read MoreMy last post was a copout, but necessary for me to express where I think things stand without going off on a million tangents. I think that maintaining an ultra-cynical view on markets, and the economy, now is critical. Recent political events have injected a huge amount of emotion, and I dare say anger, into the economic and financial market debate. It’s tempting to jump in both feet first, but investors are ill served by letting their own views and biases steer their decisions. This will sound obvious, but it isn’t always easy to follow.
Sometimes, though, a cynical approach can only come after a cathartic release of your own opinion and views. This post does just that, and I am going to piss off a lot of people. So close your browser if you’re not interested.
Read MoreI am in New York this week to see clients and prospects, which is why I haven't yet had time to say much about Mr. Trump snatching the prize or the crazy market moves that have followed. I don't see much change . The espresso in Murray Hill, served by Chinese immigrations, is exquisite as ever and New Yorkers remain notoriously impatient, and bad, drivers. I do notice a big increase in TV-ads for Range Rover and Jaguar, though, so maybe there is a concrete sign of the alleged rapprochement between the U.S. and the U.K. in the aftermath of Brexit and Mr. Trump's victory.
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