There are a lot of things we don’t know about Russia’s attempt to invade Ukraine, but there are also some things we do know. Mr. Putin’s gamble, and the West’s response, has brought into view one of the few existential tail risks that isn’t a Black Swan, which is to say, it is a known unknown: The risk of an escalation into war between Russia and NATO, and the exchange of nuclear weaponry. The continued call on NATO from Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky to impose a no-fly zone his country is an alarming case in point. I have no idea how to quantify such a risk, and it is fair to assume that markets don’t either, at least not with any accuracy. BCA’s suggestion that you might as well be long stocks on a 12-month basis, even if you think an ICBM is headed your way is probably a fair reflection of the level of analysis you can expect from your favourite sell-side researcher. Take everything you read with a heap of salt.
Read MoreI this video I discuss patriotism and nationalism in Europe and in the U.K., using the Brexit referendum as a case study. I open the video by reading an excerpt from a recent article in the Point magazine, in which editor Jon Baskin interviews Princeton professor George Kateb about his writings, ideas and thoughts on patriotism. The views expressed here are mine and mine alone, and as I say in the introduction, I am using Mr. Kateb’s arguments out of context, which is to say, I am using the very specific points he makes to Baskin as an amouche bouche for my discussion. I am not familiar with Mr. Kateb’s writings at large. Though I don’t mention him directly, I have also been inspired by recent comments by Douglas Murray, and conversations between him and other interviewers, relating to the oddness of being ashamed of one's history and heritage. I apologise for the cover of my notebook protruding annoyingly in the bottom of the frame.
Thanks, as always, for watching.
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