To the extent that birth postponement is a key feature of the second demographic transition, South Korea is a poster child for the phenomenon. Recently, we learned that South Korea's total fertility rate fell to an astonishing 0.78 in 2022, from 0.81 in 2021, the lowest period fertility rate on the planet. The first two charts paint a clear picture. The first shows the sustained decline in fertility rates, which began in the 1960s. In 1960, South Korean women were having about six children per women, a number which had declined to just over four by 1970 and just over two by 1980. By the middle of the 1980s, fertility fell below the replacement level, and the decline has continued since, despite temporary rebounds at the start of the 1990s and again at the beginning of the 2000s. Period fertility resumed its decline around 2015, and the result to date is that South Korea has the lowest recorded total fertility rate on earth. The second chart plots crude birth rate across age and 20-year time periods, which is a good way to distinguish between quantum and tempo effects.
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