birth rates — Alpha.Sources

The fertility wars

The political flurry in the US over the virtues of parenthood and a high birth rate is part of a much larger cultural moment in which the debate on the significance of falling global fertility is pitting two increasingly militant and unyielding sides against each other. We have trade wars, culture wars, even actual wars; we can now add fertility wars to the list. When Elon Musk, a US entrepreneur and businessman, calls Ms. Harris an “extinctionist”, because she has linked the reluctance of young people to have children to “climate anxiety”, he means it, just as he means it when he concludes that “the natural extension of her philosophy would be a de facto holocaust for all of humanity!”

How to get handle on this? With difficulty, but in the end, hopefully with precision and clarity. First, I will briefly show that the fertility wars have been fought for a long time. I will then draw the contours of three separate positions in the fertility wars today—on the Conservative right, on the left, and a feminist perspective—before offering a suggestion on where this discourse goes next, and where it ultimately ends up, if we are sufficiently unlucky or un-attentive.

Things to think about #4

The Economist’s Free Exchange column drops in on the question of an economic motherhood penalty from childbirth. It is nice to see that the Economist correctly distinguishes between two distinct economic motherhood penalties, both of which can be traced to the interplay between evolutionary forces and modernity, where the latter in this case is defined as an environment with rapidly increasing returns to investment in human capital and education. The first, between fathers and mothers, emerge because the cost of child-rearing especially in the early part of a child’s life overwhelmingly falls on the mother, a conclusion which follows from Trivers (1972). This is true in terms of the cost during pregnancy and immediately after too. It is also true before we consider the possibility that the resource allocation trade-off for many women shifts in the wake of motherhood. The second motherhood penalty occurs between women. Put simply, in an economic structure where childless women have the ability to devote all their resources to somatic investment and take advantage of the above-mentioned increasing returns to human capital investment, the wage and wealth divergence between women who have many children and those who have none will widen significantly, at least in theory. For more on this, I cover the theory in more detail in my essay on fertility and sexual selection; see here.

IIEA Talks - A discussion about the decline in global fertility and population ageing

I had the opportunity earlier this week to sit down with the IIEA and Dan O’Brien to discuss the decline in global birth rates, population ageing and what it all means. Thanks to the IIEA for hosting me.

Delayed Gratification - Why are global birth rates falling, and does it matter?

This is the final chapter in the first part of my long-running demographics project. In the previous chapter I described the quantum effect of fertility, which hypothesises a negative relationship between fertility and rising incomes as parents substitute quantity for quality in their reproductive decisions and child-rearing. But can the quantum effect explain why birth rates in one country after the other appears to be stuck below the replacement level, and why global fertility will soon drop below that same level? The answer is no.

To understand current and more recent post WWII global fertility trends—broadly since the 1970s—we need to introduce tempo effects to the analysis. Tempo effects describe the tendency of women to postpone the timing of their first child. By mathematical logic, prolonged tempo effects can drive significant population ageing, but a more fundamental question is whether birth postponement also has a lagged effect on quantum, or more precisely, cohort fertility. This chapter discusses these question in the context of the hypothesis of a Second Demographic Transition, SDT, and presents a number of case studies to explore the specifics of recent fertility trends in key countries and regions. The chapter finishes by discussing the idea of a fertility trap, and whether the increasingly accelerating decline in global birth rates are a problem, drawing on the recent polarisation in the debate on this issue.

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