In this show I argue that paying less attention to Mr. Trump and the White House probably won't do you any harm. It might even do you good. I also respond to the idea that no credible alternatives are currently being offered to the surge in new populism and its policy suggestions. I offer three concrete proposals. Finally, I try to make an impossible transition to a brief discussion about financial markets. I will put up some charts in the next few days, but I am not sure that much has changed. The queue of bears at the abattoir is long as ever.
Read MoreAnother week, another hand grenade thrown in U.S. politics and international affairs. President Trump and his advisors believe they have the wind in their sails, and they're determined to make as much headway as possible. We all have our opinions on this, but as investors we need to keep our eyes on the ball. And the situation is getting interesting. Spoos are up 23% since the lows of the Q1 panic in 2016, and it has soared 10% alone since Mr. Trump snatched the elections.
Read MoreMy last post was a copout, but necessary for me to express where I think things stand without going off on a million tangents. I think that maintaining an ultra-cynical view on markets, and the economy, now is critical. Recent political events have injected a huge amount of emotion, and I dare say anger, into the economic and financial market debate. It’s tempting to jump in both feet first, but investors are ill served by letting their own views and biases steer their decisions. This will sound obvious, but it isn’t always easy to follow.
Sometimes, though, a cynical approach can only come after a cathartic release of your own opinion and views. This post does just that, and I am going to piss off a lot of people. So close your browser if you’re not interested.
Read MoreAfter a week's break, and a detour, I am back in the saddle for a busy run-in to Christmas. The main market mover of note, while trawling the museums and bars of Paris, was that global equities finally showed a bit of weakness. The MSCI World slid 1.8% last week, down 4.8% from its peak in August, which means that the index is flat as a pancake year-to-date. A belated reaction to the recent mini tantrum in bond markets, or a knee-jerk reaction to tighter polls across the pond, are probably the lazy strategist's reason for the sell off. But it has been coming regardless.
Read More