I have a feeling that equity markets are setting a trap for investors, but I can't quite figure out which kind it is. Will the last bull be sucked in before the disappointment sets in, or are we now on a sustainable glide path towards new highs with maximum frustration for the sceptics? We didn't get any decisive clues last week. Equity volatility rose a tad, but ranges remain incredibly tight across a number of key asset markets. False breaks are guaranteed, and vol-sellers will continue to play cat and mouse with the heroes trying to straddle the ranges, playing for a breakout.
Read MoreI am generally a tolerant guy, but when it comes to a debate on international capital flows I am a raving lunatic. I have no time for amateurs, and it is my clear impression that president Trump’s trade advisors, and those who agree with them, are just that. You need to understand where I am coming from, though. Specifically, you need to read my two essays about QE, population ageing and the global paradox of thrift. Here is a summary if you don’t want to read the whole thing; read it carefully.
Read MoreI occasionally do small videos for work, which are used as marketing material really to get our name out. But they are also, of course, aimed to inform, at least to some extent. As such, I thought they might be interesting to people reading this blog. Catch my latest contribution below, and if you want to browse all the videos we have put out check out the main Vimeo page here.
Read MoreWe have barely recovered from the hangover acquired on New Year's Eve, and I am already tired of the memes and narratives being used to label 2017. I like to believe that I have a decent bullshit-filter, but I have realised that it needs a serious upgrade in the wake of recent geopolitical festivities. Call it the January blues, but the idea of re-engaging with the Trump/Brexit crap-shooters doesn’t exactly fill me with joy. The upshot, I suppose, is that it forces me to keep the eye on the ball. In that vein, the tradition of financial market analysis at the dawn of a new year suggests that I present a list of list of 2017 (non)predictions and themes. But I won’t. This already has been done ad nauseum by other prominent members of the peanut gallery. Instead, I want to pick up where I left before I dialled down for the Christmas break.
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